Probability In Everyday Life

A few friends and I were discussing palmistry when the following bit of conversation happened

Friend 1: Macha, show me your hand again.. oh you have a simian crease!

Me: Hahaha, doesn't Simian mean monkey or something??

Friend 2: Best monkey man! But wtf? I can't believe we are discussing this stuff. How can you believe in this garbage?

Friend 3: But you know chicks like such stuff..

Friend 2 (with almost 0 reaction time): Does your Mom also like it?


Friend 1: Simian creases are damn rare da.

Friend 3: Balls. I know many people who have it. My dad and uncle have them. Its not rare at all...

I later found out that only about 3% of the population have them. What that lead me to understand is that Friend 3 might have a misconceived notion about something simply because he was exposed to outliers i.e. 2 people close to him having the simian crease without even knowing it.

I wonder how many wrong notions I have.. Hmmm...


  1. Outlier eh :) You wouldn't know what aspect you're an outlier in, unless you use some amazing analytics, and you have a perfect working model of the universe. So why not live the epiphany as it unfolds and leave the outlier analysis when you're old and bored!

  2. Lol.Well said Ojas, but maybe him and those three friends are already bored. And UC, seriously arrogant. 0 reaction time lol.

  3. Hey Ojas!
    Thats kinda what I implied in this post.