Probability In Everyday Life

A few friends and I were discussing palmistry when the following bit of conversation happened

Friend 1: Macha, show me your hand again.. oh you have a simian crease!


Me: Hahaha, doesn't Simian mean monkey or something??

Friend 2: Best monkey man! But wtf? I can't believe we are discussing this stuff. How can you believe in this garbage?

Friend 3: But you know chicks like such stuff..

Friend 2 (with almost 0 reaction time): Does your Mom also like it?

(Silence)

Friend 1: Simian creases are damn rare da.

Friend 3: Balls. I know many people who have it. My dad and uncle have them. Its not rare at all...

I later found out that only about 3% of the population have them. What that lead me to understand is that Friend 3 might have a misconceived notion about something simply because he was exposed to outliers i.e. 2 people close to him having the simian crease without even knowing it.

I wonder how many wrong notions I have.. Hmmm...

3 comments:

  1. Outlier eh :) You wouldn't know what aspect you're an outlier in, unless you use some amazing analytics, and you have a perfect working model of the universe. So why not live the epiphany as it unfolds and leave the outlier analysis when you're old and bored!

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  2. Lol.Well said Ojas, but maybe him and those three friends are already bored. And UC, seriously arrogant. 0 reaction time lol.

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  3. Hey Ojas!
    Thats kinda what I implied in this post.

    @OMFGITSROHIT.

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